Tag: stats

Troy Tulowitzki and how we choose to look at stats

I listened the other day as the talking heads on ESPN discussed the idea of Troy Tulowitzki earning this year’s MVP based on his 14 homeruns in 15 game performance. 

Sigh. 

Ok, it makes for good TV and to their credit most of them came to the conclusion that if he did it again (assuming that were even possible this late in the season), he should get it.  Otherwise, they wisely said no, probably not.  Last year, Fangraphs had a good article on “When Samples Become Reliable”.  I think it’s relevant here. 

But it’s more than just sample size too.  It’s choosing the range of data, too.  Let’s take a hypothetical example…

Say a player, call him Player X, goes hitless on Sunday and Monday.  He then gets one hit on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Friday and Saturday he goes hitless again.  We could say:

  • Player X got hits three days in a row.
  • Player X got three hits in the week
  • Player X got three hits from Sunday through Thursday

Those are all correct statements but convey very different things.  It’s just human nature that most of us would like to probably choose to focus on the positive and most likely concentrate on the fact that Player X hit safely in three straight games. 

So yeah, Tulo did hit 14 homeruns in 15 games and that is indeed a notable achievement.  But let’s look at the whole picture, guys.  He has 26 homeruns up to this point.  The fact that Tulowitzki did this at this moment in the season probably didn’t hurt.  Had he done this in June, the boys on ESPN wouldn’t have been bringing up his name. 

Thoughts?

How many played SS and catcher in the same season?

My buddy John and I got talking the other day about players who double at two positions that require radically different skillsets.  Craig Biggio, for example, was a rarity in that he played catcher AND secondbase, two positions you rarely see paired together.  And played them well.  Not to mention that he played centerfield as well. 

What I wanted to see was how many players in modern day baseball had played at catcher AND shortstop within the same year.  My chosen limit was at least 10 games at both positions.  Between the the years 1901 and 2009, only seven players fit that description.

Using Baseball Reference’s Play Index, here is the list of players I came up with:

Player G Year Tm AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG Pos
Marty Martinez 113 1968 ATL 356 34 82 5 3 0 12 29 28 6 .230 .291 .261 6542
Bobby Bragan 109 1942 PHI 335 17 73 12 2 2 15 20 21 0 .218 .264 .284 *62/45
Bobby Bragan 94 1944 BRO 266 26 71 8 4 0 17 13 14 2 .267 .304 .327 *62/54
Sport McAllister 78 1903 DET 265 31 69 8 2 0 22 10 0 5 .260 .297 .306 *62/953
Dave Roberts 101 1980 TEX 235 27 56 4 0 10 30 13 38 0 .238 .280 .383 562/943
Mike Sandlock 80 1945 BRO 195 21 55 14 2 2 17 18 19 2 .282 .346 .405 *26/45
Ron Slocum 60 1970 SDP 71 8 10 2 2 1 11 8 24 0 .141 .238 .268 265/4
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 1/4/2010.
 

(The games played were Martinez SS-54 C-14, ‘42 Bragan SS-78 C-22, ‘44 Bragan SS-51 C-35, McAllister SS-46 C-18, Roberts SS-33 C-22, Sandlock SS-22 C-47, Slocum SS-17 C-19).

All seven (well six, as Bobby Bragan is listed twice) seem to be the uber-utility types playing at least four different positions in their particular season.  It’s no surprise that none were fantastic hitters (though Roberts did hit 10 HR) but I’m sure their managers found their versatility useful.

I guess the most unusual was Bragan himself who not only did it twice but managed to put in over 20 games at catcher each year in addition to his normal shortstop. 

Tater-less

Baseball Reference’s Stat of the Day blog does the numbers work and determines who among active players has the most plate appearances with 0 homers.

Most are pitchers, of course, though #1 on the list is Angel OF Reggie Willits with 785 plate appearances. 

What struck me is the number of Cubs and former Cubs on the list.  Most notably, Ryan Dempster who ranks #6 with 491. 

That’s ok, that’s not his job.

Many saves, high ERA

In honor of Kevin Gregg, I played around with Baseball Reference’s Play Index and came up with a list of closers with the highest ERA.  More specifically, these are the pitchers with the most saves in a season among those with an adjusted ERA of 70 or less.  

    Player            SV ERA+   ERA  Year Age
+----+-----------------+--+----+------+----+---+
    1 Shawn Chacon      35   69   7.11 2004  26 
    2 Mike Williams     28   69   6.14 2003  33 
    3 Derrick Turnbow   24   66   6.87 2006  28 
    4 Jose Mesa         24   61   6.52 2003  37 
    5 Brad Lidge        23   60   7.21 2009  32 
    6 Matt Capps        21   64   6.41 2009  25 
    7 Rob Dibble        19   62   6.48 1993  29 
    8 Dave Smith        17   65   6.00 1991  36 
    9 Willie Hernandez  15   67   5.74 1989  34 
   10 Darold Knowles    15   66   5.81 1975  33

 

Full list here.

Only 2004 Shawn Chacon of (you guessed it) the Colorado Rockies, breaks the 30 save mark.  He had a 1-9 record to go with his 7.11 ERA. 

Five more over 20 and it pretty much dissolves after that. 

In 1998, Mark Wohlers of the Braves managed to get 8 saves in 27 games with an ERA in the double digits (10.18)

Speedsters with low OBP

sicampy

Let’s take a look at stolen bases and on base percentage. 

Here are the players with the lowest OBP with at least 50 stolen bases in a single season. 

                         OBP   SB
    1 Bert Campaneris    .278  52 1972   
    2 Vince Coleman      .285  50 1994   
    3 Omar Moreno        .292  60 1982  
    4 Miguel Dilone      .294  50 1978  
    5 Omar Moreno        .295  53 1977   
    6 Bert Campaneris    .297  55 1967   
    7 Jose Reyes         .300  60 2005   
    8 Mookie Wilson      .300  54 1983   
    9 Vince Coleman      .301 107 1986   
   10 Bert Campaneris    .302  62 1969   








This list is rife of leadoff men (I’m going on memory but I’m pretty sure they all led off for their respective teams) but still couldn’t get the job done when came to getting on base.   


They say you can’t steal first base but from a stat point of view, what these guys was pretty amazing (if not self-serving, see #9).  These men got on base some 30% of the time (plus errors etc) yet still managed to steal an ungodly amount of bases.  


If you think Bert Campaneris is over-represented in this list, check out the full list.   Campy comes up #11, too.  


No, you can’t steal first base but when these guy DID get on, you could be pretty sure you had a man on second by the next batter.  


 


 


 


 









	


	





	

		
		
Secondbaseman and the Intentional Walk
	


	
	
	

		
Taking a look at the Intentional Base on Balls with a twist.  Here is an all-time top ten list of secondbaseman ranked by most intentional base on balls in a single season.


    1 Ted Sizemore       21 1977
    2 Jose Lind          19 1990
    3 Rod Carew          18 1975
    4 Glenn Hubbard      17 1987
    5 Ron Oester         17 1985
    6 Ron Oester         16 1986
    7 Ted Kubiak         16 1970
    8 Bill Mazeroski     16 1962
    9 Phil Garner        15 1979
   10 Bill Mazeroski     15 1960



 


Unlike the complete IBB single-season leaders list which is dominated by sluggers (read: Barry Bonds), those on the secondbaseman top ten list do not curry their intentional walks from fear.


Nay, with the exception of Rod Carew, these second sackers, earned their intentional ball-fours because they primarily hit eighth in the lineup on a National League team.  Hitting before the pitcher got them their IBBs.


Phil Garner is an interesting case.  While he played a full season (150 games, 549 AB), Only 60 of his games were dedicated to the 8th spot.  The other lineup spots (2nd, 6th, and 7th) were pretty evenly distributed.  I’m pretty familiar with the 79 Pirates lineup and can’t think of another hitter that a team would walk Garner to get to (SS Foli was a decent hitter).


My only guess was that Garner must have gotten most of his 15 IBB in his 60 games as the 8th place hitter.  Perhaps the Pirates pitchers’ hitting was that poor.

	


	





	

		
		
Improbable Stats: Darren Oliver
	


	
	
	

		
I was doing some research on another project and ran across this gem.  


Not only does Angel pitcher Darren Oliver have a career winning record (a pretty sizable one at that with a 104-82 record) but he is 17-3 in his last five years.


 






Year
Wins
Losses




2006
4
1




2007
3
1




2008
7
1




2009
3
0






 


not what I expected on either count.  

	


	







	

		
		
Quit messin’ wit’ my box scores
	


	
	
	

		
BoxScore7 


With the advent of the digital era, we as baseball fans now have a bevy of sports information at our fingertips.  We have baseball data galore, streaming video, analysis all of it coming to our screen even to our mobile devices.  


That was pretty apparent when I was standing next to three Cub fans at the Illinois game last Saturday.  Between pitches, they would refresh their smart phones so they could check on the progress of the Cubs-Cardinals game.  


Unfortunately, with progress in one area, we step back in one or two others.  Do a search on “Where are the box scores?” in your favorite search engine and you’ll find more than a smattering of articles or even letters to the editors complaining about newspapers no longer printing box scores in their sports section.  


An argument can be made which I will not refute that print newspapers have seen better days and are on their decline.  Whether their demise is here and now, is quite debatable.  And not doubt it’s true, a lot of newspapers in smaller markets have legitimate financial reasons to cut back on sports coverage. 


Also interesting are those newspaper outlets who still print or post boxscores on their web site and use it as a marketing tool.  Like Freep.com.  No, they’re not like those other papers.   


Even among web-delivered stats and box scores there has been a trade-off.  For years, I’ve enjoyed the USA Today’s section for one simple reason… in years past, they’ve displayed their box scores in a one-page format.  A year or two ago, they “enhanced” it slightly but it only required one click to expand all box scores.  


But the full box scores page on UST is no longer.  They’ve taken the “Box Scores” link down.  Unless, I’m missing something, they no longer do that forcing us web browsers to click back and forth for each game.  


The reason is simple from USA Today’s (and ESPN’s and MLB.com’s etc) perspective.  It means more click-throughs and more ad views and therefore more ad revenue.   


Maybe I’m being picky.  But my time is valuable and I’d just as soon scroll down a page.  I will give USA Today credit for keeping their Stats by Team in a one-page format for each league.  That is still pretty handy.  


Quit messin’ wit’ the box scores.  Analysis is great but it’s only opinion.  Box scores are the reality of baseball.

	


	





	

		
		
SABR giving away Emerald Guide to Baseball 2009
	


	
	
	

		
emeraldguide 


The Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) is giving away their pdf version of Emerald Guide to Baseball 2009.  Here is the link to SABR’s download page.


From SABR’s website:




Edited by accomplished and acclaimed baseball historians Gary Gillette and Pete Palmer and published by SABR, The Emerald Guide distills the 2008 season down to 586 fact-filled pages that contain the pitching, fielding, and hitting statistics for every player active in the major and minor leagues in 2008.




The print version is also available from Lulu for $23.94  if you absolutely must have a hard copy.


I took a quick gander at the pdf and it pretty much delivers as promises.  If you don’t mind giving SABR your email address, take advantage of this.